LAKE COUNTY, Calif. – The National Weather Service has issued a red flag warning for Lake County and much of the rest of Northern California as forecasters predict a combination of thunderstorms and high winds will result from the remains of a tropical storm passing through the region.
The red flag warning is in effect until 11 p.m. Monday.
A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly.
The forecast warns of the potential fire starts due to “abundant lightning” that’s possible from Sunday night through early Tuesday morning.
The National Weather Service said a moist and unstable midlevel airmass is expected to spread north across the region on Sunday, with isolated thunderstorms possibly developing over Mendocino and Lake counties during the day.
“Additional thunderstorm development will be more likely Sunday night into Monday morning across much of Northwest California as the remnants of a tropical system move north across the area,” according to the forecast.
Forecasters warn of another round of storms that will be possible on Tuesday morning as a second upper disturbance moves eastward across the region.
“Lightning combined with dry fuels will increase the threat for fire starts during each episode of storm development,” the forecast said.
Other concerns cited in the National Weather Service’s long-term forecast include high temperatures close to the century mark through Monday before conditions cool slightly, dropping into the low to mid 90s through the weekend.
Smoke from the LNU Lightning Complex and other regional fires also is expected to continue to impact Lake County through at least Tuesday, the forecast said.
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This illustration shows asteroid 2020 QG's trajectory bending during its close approach to Earth. The asteroid is the closest known nonimpacting asteroid ever detected. Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech. An SUV-size space rock flew past our planet last weekend and was detected by a NASA-funded asteroid survey as it departed.
Near Earth asteroids, or NEAs, pass by our home planet all the time. But an SUV-size asteroid set the record this past weekend for coming closer to Earth than any other known NEA: It passed 1,830 miles (2,950 kilometers) above the southern Indian Ocean on Sunday, Aug. 16 at 12:08 a.m. EDT (Saturday, Aug. 15 at 9:08 p.m. PDT).
At roughly 10 to 20 feet (3 to 6 meters) across, asteroid 2020 QG is very small by asteroid standards: If it had actually been on an impact trajectory, it would likely have become a fireball as it broke up in Earth's atmosphere, which happens several times a year.
By some estimates, there are hundreds of millions of small asteroids the size of 2020 QG, but they are extremely hard to discover until they get very close to Earth. The vast majority of NEAs pass by safely at much greater distances – usually much farther away than the Moon.
"It's really cool to see a small asteroid come by this close, because we can see the Earth's gravity dramatically bend its trajectory," said Paul Chodas, director of the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. "Our calculations show that this asteroid got turned by 45 degrees or so as it swung by our planet."
Zipping along at almost 8 miles per second (12.3 kilometers per second) – a little slower than average, Chodas noted – 2020 QG was first recorded as just a long streak in a wide-field camera image taken by the Zwicky Transient Facility.
The image was taken six hours after the closest point of approach as the asteroid was heading away from Earth. A sky-scanning survey telescope funded by the National Science Foundation and NASA, the Zwicky Transient Facility is based at Caltech's Palomar Observatory in San Diego County. NASA's Near-Earth Object Observations Program funds data processing for NEO detections.
Asteroid 2020 QG enters the record books as the closest known nonimpacting asteroid; many very small asteroids impact our planet every year, but only a few have actually been detected in space a few hours before impacting Earth. On average, an asteroid the size of 2020 QG passes this closely only a few times a year.
In 2005, Congress assigned NASA the goal of finding 90% of the near-Earth asteroids that are about 460 feet (140 meters) or larger in size. These larger asteroids pose a much greater threat if they were to impact, and they can be detected much farther away from Earth, because their rate of motion across the sky is typically much smaller at that distance.
"It's quite an accomplishment to find these tiny close-in asteroids in the first place, because they pass by so fast," Chodas said. "There's typically only a short window of a couple of days before or after close approach when this small of an asteroid is close enough to Earth to be bright enough but not so close that it moves too fast in the sky to be detected by a telescope."
A division of Caltech in Pasadena, JPL hosts CNEOS for NASA's Near-Earth Object Observations Program in NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office.
More information about CNEOS, asteroids and near-Earth objects can be found at https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov.
The circled streak in the center of this image is asteroid 2020 QG, which came closer to Earth than any other nonimpacting asteroid on record. It was detected by the Zwicky Transient Facility on Sunday, Aug. 16 at 12:08 a.m. EDT (Saturday, Aug. 15 at 9:08 p.m. PDT). Credits: ZTF/Caltech Optical Observatories.
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. – Forest officials said another lightning-caused fire is burning on the Mendocino National Forest, this time on the Upper Lake Ranger District.
The Hull fire is located five miles north of Lake Pillsbury. It is estimated at 2,000 acres, officials reported.
Forest officials said in a Saturday report that the fire was detected on Wednesday after several rounds of thunderstorms occurred across the forest earlier in the week.
There are 47 personnel committed to the incident including seven engine crews, one hand crew and operations managers. On Saturday, fire personnel will use direct suppression tactics and construct handlines where possible, the Mendocino National Forest reported.
The fire is burning in timber on the north and east aspects of Hull Mountain and is active in Hull Creek, backing down into Rattlesnake Creek and spreading north along Panther Ridge, according to the forest’s report.
Officials said the fire is threatening cabins to the south and other private property may become threatened as the fire progresses northward.
Smoke in the community of Potter Valley and the Pillsbury subdivision has degraded air quality. A known sensitive air quality area is located east of the fire in the Snow Mountain Wilderness, the forest reported.
The weather forecast shows hot and dry conditions continuing with a chance of lightning again for Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures will range from 75 to 80 degrees on the ridges.
There is an area closure in place due to the fire activity in the August Complex. The forest order and map are posted on the forest website.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA – Officials reported that a complex of lightning-caused fires is continuing to burn up acreage in the Mendocino National Forest.
The August Complex on the Mendocino National Forest’s Grindstone Ranger District burned 160,005 acres by Saturday night, with containment at 11 percent, the US Forest Service reported.
The complex, located 30 miles northeast of Willows, began burning last Sunday, in the wake of thunderstorms that passed over the region.
The Forest Service said it’s made up of 20 fires.
In a Saturday report, forest officials said the complex had so far destroyed 10 structures.
The largest of the fires include the Doe, 136,430 acres; the Glade, 13,088 acres; the Tatham, 7,667 acres; the Hopkins, 2,153 acres; and the Willow Basin, 601 acres.
The Forest Service said firefighters are working with Cal Fire to construct dozer lines along County Road 306 in Glenn County to provide protection to private homes and properties against the Tatham fire, which is four miles west of Paskenta.
Officials said fire crews are going direct on the west flank of the Glade fire and making good progress while continuing to protect property at risk on the east and southeast side of the fire.
The Hopkins fire is burning in an old fire scar in the Yolla Bolly wilderness and is staffed with smokejumpers, officials said.
The Forest Service said 397 firefighting personnel and 124 overhead personnel, 28 engines, three helicopters, seven bulldozers, four water tenders and seven crews are assigned to the complex.
Also in the Mendocino National Forest, the 2,000-acre Hull fire is burning five miles north of Lake Pillsbury on the Upper Lake Ranger District.
Officials said Saturday that the fire, caused by lightning, was discovered on Wednesday.
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A map of the areas under evacuation orders and warnings in Lake County, California, due to the LNU Lightning Complex as of Saturday, August 22, 2020. Photo courtesy of the county of Lake.
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. – Firefighters held the LNU Lightning Complex to a smaller amount of daytime growth on Saturday as more resources arrived to assist the effort.
The complex was up to 325,128 acres on Saturday night, a growth of just under 11,000 acres during the course of the day, with containment remaining at 15 percent.
On Thursday and Friday, the complex had grown 84,000 and 83,000 acres, respectively, as Lake County News has reported.
The Hennessey fire, the portion of the complex burning in Lake, Napa, Solano and Yolo counties, has so far burned 271,714 acres and is 17-percent contained, Cal Fire said.
On the Sonoma County side of the fire, the Walbridge fire west of Healdsburg is up to 51,069 acres and the Meyers fire north of Jenner is at 2,345 acres. Cal Fire said there is no containment on either of those fires.
On Saturday evening, Cal Fire said the number of structures destroyed increased to 845, with damaged structures numbering 231. Another 30,500 remain threatened.
Cal Fire Sonoma Lake Napa Unit Chief Shana Jones said in a Saturday morning briefing that the LNU Lightning Complex remains the No. 1 priority in the state for resources that become available.
“Within an incident this size and complexity, and with all the fire activity throughout the state, all of our resources remain stretched to a capacity that we have not seen in recent history,” Jones said.
More resources are coming in from out of state to help fight the fires around California, but Jones said, “We are not out of the woods.”
A few hundred more firefighters and dozens of additional engines joined the fight on Saturday. Cal Fire said assigned resources included 1,704 personnel, 233 engines, 33 water tenders, 11 helicopters, 15 hand crews and 37 dozers.
The fire’s continued growth led to the Lake County Sheriff’s Office issuing a new evacuation order for areas near Lower Lake and an evacuation warning for areas north of Lower Lake to Highway 20, excluding the city of Clearlake.
An evacuation order for the Hidden Valley Lake and Jerusalem Valley areas remains in effect, as does an evacuation warning for the greater Middletown area, including Middletown proper.
As predicted on Saturday, the wind shifted and caused Lake County’s air basin to fill with smoke, making visibility challenging for firefighting forces, according to radio reports.
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The LNU Lightning Complex as mapped by Cal Fire on Saturday, August 22, 2020. LAKE COUNTY, Calif. – The LNU Lightning Complex continued its aggressive growth overnight, burning nearly 12,000 acres even in cooler conditions.
The fire, burning since early Monday, was up to 314,207 acres on Saturday morning, with containment remaining at 15 percent, according to Cal Fire.
It continues to threaten 30,500 structures. Cal Fire said on Saturday that additional damage assessments confirmed 560 structures have been destroyed and 125 damaged.
Resources assigned include 1,429 firefighters, 194 engines, 35 water tenders, 11 helicopters, 13 hand crews and 36 dozers, Cal Fire reported.
The portion of the fire burning into Lake County, the Hennessey fire, grew by 5,000 acres overnight to a total of 261,793 acres, with containment remaining at 15 percent, according to Cal Fire’s Saturday morning report.
The Hennessey fire also is burning in Napa, Solano and Yolo counties.
Because of the fire’s continued expansion, local authorities have left in place an evacuation order for the Hidden Valley Lake and Jerusalem Valley areas, while an evacuation warning remains in effect for the greater Middletown area.
In Sonoma County, the Walbridge portion of the complex, located west of Healdsburg, is at 50,069 acres, and the Meyers fire north of Jenner is at 2,345 acres. There is so far no containment on either fire.
Cal Fire will stream its morning update on the fire on its Facebook page at 11 a.m. Saturday.
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. – Lake County Animal Care and Control has a selection of larger dog breeds available to new homes this week.
Dogs available for adoption this week include mixes of American Staffordshire Terrier, chow chow, German Shepherd, Great Pyrenees, husky, Labrador Retriever and pit bull.
Dogs that are adopted from Lake County Animal Care and Control are either neutered or spayed, microchipped and, if old enough, given a rabies shot and county license before being released to their new owner. License fees do not apply to residents of the cities of Lakeport or Clearlake.
The following dogs at the Lake County Animal Care and Control shelter have been cleared for adoption (additional dogs on the animal control Web site not listed are still “on hold”).
“Pina” is a young female pit bull terrier in kennel No. 26, ID No. 13842. Photo courtesy of Lake County Animal Care and Control. ‘Pina’
“Pina” is a young female pit bull terrier with a short tan and brindle coat.
She is in kennel No. 26, ID No. 13842.
This male German Shepherd-pit bull mix is in kennel No. 27, ID No. 13841. Photo courtesy of Lake County Animal Care and Control. German Shepherd-pit bull mix
This male German Shepherd-pit bull mix has a black and brindle coat.
He is in kennel No. 27, ID No. 13841.
“Turbo” is a young male German Shepherd-husky mix in kennel No. 28, ID No. 13903. Photo courtesy of Lake County Animal Care and Control. ‘Turbo’
“Turbo” is a young male German Shepherd-husky mix.
He has a medium-length gray and black coat.
He is in kennel No. 28, ID No. 13903.
“Raven” is a female black Labrador Retriever in kennel No. 29, ID No. 13902. Photo courtesy of Lake County Animal Care and Control. ‘Raven’
“Raven” is a female black Labrador Retriever.
She has been spayed.
She is in kennel No. 29, ID No. 13902.
This male Great Pyrenees is in kennel No. 31, ID No. 13900. Photo courtesy of Lake County Animal Care and Control. Great Pyrenees
This male Great Pyrenees has a long cream-colored coat.
He is in kennel No. 31, ID No. 13900.
This male chow chow is in kennel No. 33, ID No. 13795. Photo courtesy of Lake County Animal Care and Control. Male chow chow
This male chow chow has a medium-length black coat.
He is in kennel No. 33, ID No. 13795.
“Chopper” is a male American Staffordshire Terrier in kennel No. 34, ID No. 13886. Photo courtesy of Lake County Animal Care and Control. ‘Chopper’
“Chopper” is a male American Staffordshire Terrier with a tan and white coat.
He has been neutered.
He’s in kennel No. 34, ID No. 13886.
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LAKE COUNTY, Calif. – The Lake County Sheriff’s Office is asking residents north of Lower Lake – not including the city of Clearlake – to be prepared to evacuate should the LNU Lightning Complex advance further into Lake County.
Shortly before 4:30 p.m. Saturday, the sheriff’s office issued an evacuation warning for all residences and areas east of Highway 29, north of Morgan Valley Road, south of Highway 20 and west of the previous warning/evacuation line at Sky High Ridge Road, from Morgan Valley Road extending north to Highway 20, not to include any residents within the city limits of Clearlake.
“We are asking everyone to take preparations in the event that a mandatory evacuation order is issued. Preparations should include gathering all medications, important documents, making plans for pets, and notifying family members where you may be going. Those requiring additional time to evacuate or those with pets or livestock should leave the area as soon as possible,” the sheriff’s office said.
The sheriff’s office urged people to evacuate early in order to avoid hectic traffic conditions and keep themselves, their neighbors and first responders safe.
Should an evacuation order be issued and shelter is needed, evacuees will be directed to a temporary evacuation point.
Clearlake Police Chief Andrew White received the Executive Certificate from Maria Sandoval, assistant executive director for the Field Services Division of the California Commission on Peace Officer Standards and Training on Thursday, August 20, 2020. Photo courtesy of the city of Clearlake. CLEARLAKE, Calif. – Clearlake’s police chief has earned the highest educational certificate available from the organization that sets professional standards for California’s law enforcement agencies.
During Thursday night’s Clearlake City Council meeting, Maria Sandoval, assistant executive director for the Field Services Division of the California Commission on Peace Officer Standards and Training, or POST, presented the organization’s Executive Certificate to Chief Andrew White.
Sandoval said POST sets the standards for 608 agencies and 97,000 police officers and dispatchers in California.
She said there are six POST certificates, with the Executive Certificate being the highest possible.
It must be earned; candidates must be full-time peace officers of a POST-participating agency who possess an Advanced Certificate, have earned a minimum of 60 semester units at an accredited college, served for a period of two years as the department’s head and who have completed the Executive Development Course.
Sandoval said less than 1 percent of the certificates POST gives are for the executive level. Since the organization was formed in 1959, approximately 1,738 of the Executive Certificates have been awarded. White’s is No. 1736.
White, who joined the city in the summer of 2018, thanked Sandoval for coming and for her assistance in helping his department host a POST-certified training course earlier in the week. She and White have reportedly worked together for many years.
“This isn’t really about me,” said White, crediting his department’s staff for their support and hard work.
He cited the previous day as an example, with officers helping to evacuate Hidden Valley Lake from the path of the LNU Lightning Complex during the course of the day and then going home, only to have to turn around and come back to work through the night due to a double-shooting. White said none of them complained.
As much as receiving the certificate is an accomplishment for White, he said it speaks to his staff’s support.
Council members lauded White for his achievement.
“We all feel very lucky to have you,” said Mayor Russ Cremer.
“We are very proud of Chief White’s achievement. His dedication to the Clearlake Police Department and to our community is beyond measure,” City Manager Alan Flora said in a Friday statement. “Chief White is a devoted leader not only to his team, but the entire organization. He maintains the continual desire to learn and improve personally in order to help make our city cleaner and safer.”
“I am grateful for the support I have received in my role as chief including from the members of the police department, city officials, the community and my family,” White said Friday. “I look forward to continuing to serve amongst a very dedicated and passionate team as we strive to continually improve.”
Lakeport Police Chief Brad Rasmussen received the POST Executive Certificate in September 2014, and the following year one of White’s predecessors in the Clearlake Police chief’s job, Craig Clausen, also was awarded the certificate, as Lake County News has reported.
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
The number of deaths in the United States through July 2020 is 8% to 12% higher than it would have been if the coronavirus pandemic had never happened. That’s at least 164,937 deaths above the number expected for the first seven months of the year – 16,183 more than the number attributed to COVID-19 thus far for that period – and it could be as high as 204,691.
Tracking deaths
When someone dies, the death certificate records an immediate cause of death, along with up to three underlying conditions that “initiated the events resulting in death.” The certificate is filed with the local health department, and the details are reported to the National Center for Health Statistics.
To calculate excess deaths requires a comparison to what would have occurred if COVID-19 had not existed. Obviously, it’s not possible to observe what didn’t happen, but it is possible to estimate it using historical data. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention does this using a statistical model, based on the previous three years of mortality data, incorporating seasonal trends as well as adjustments for data-reporting delays.
So, looking at what happened over the past three years, the CDC projects what might have been. By using a statistical model, they are also able to calculate the uncertainty in their estimates. That allows statisticians like me to assess whether the observed data look unusual compared to projections.
The number of excess deaths is the difference between the model’s projections and the actual observations. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also calculates an upper threshold for the estimated number of deaths – that helps determine when the observed number of deaths is unusually high compared to historical trends.
Clearly visible in a graph of this data is the spike in deaths beginning in mid-March 2020 and continuing to the present. You can also see another period of excess deaths from December 2017 to January 2018, attributable to an unusually virulent flu strain that year. The magnitude of the excess deaths in 2020 makes clear that COVID-19 is much worse than influenza, even when compared to a bad flu year like 2017-18, when an estimated 61,000 people in the U.S. died of the illness.
The large spike in deaths in April 2020 corresponds to the coronavirus outbreak in New York and the Northeast, after which the number of excess deaths decreased regularly and substantially until July, when it started to increase again. This current uptick in excess deaths is attributable to the outbreaks in the South and West that have occurred since June.
The data tell the story
It doesn’t take a sophisticated statistical model to see that the coronavirus pandemic is causing substantially more deaths than would have otherwise occurred.
The number of deaths the CDC officially attributed to COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 148,754 by Aug. 1. Some people who are skeptical about aspects of the coronavirus suggest these are deaths that would have occurred anyway, perhaps because COVID-19 is particularly deadly for the elderly. Others believe that, because the pandemic has changed life so drastically, the increase in COVID-19-related deaths is probably offset by decreases from other causes. But neither of these possibilities is true.
In fact, the number of excess deaths currently exceeds the number attributable to COVID-19 by more than 16,000 people in the U.S. What’s behind that discrepancy is not yet clear. COVID-19 deaths could be being undercounted, or the pandemic could also be causing increases in other types of death. It’s probably some of both.
Regardless of the reason, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in substantially more deaths than would have otherwise occurred … and it is not over yet.
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. – The Lake County Sheriff’s Office on Saturday afternoon issued a new mandatory evacuation order for south county residents in the path of the growing LNU Lightning Complex.
The sheriff’s office ordered residents to immediately leave areas south of Morgan Valley Road, west of the mandatory evacuation borderline at Sky High Ridge Road to Highway 29 and Highway 53 in Lower Lake, and east of Highway 29 at Hofacker Lane to the mandatory evacuation borderline.
This area was previously under an evacuation warning, which on Saturday afternoon was upgraded to an evacuation order.
Residents are advised that there is an immediate threat to life and property from a wildfire and are urged to evacuate.
Those who are in need of shelter should proceed to a temporary evacuation point, or TEP, that has been set up at the Kelseyville High School parking lot, located at 5480 Main St. Evacuees are asked to stay in their vehicles and wear masks when they arrive at the TEP. A shelter is being established and evacuees will be directed to the shelter by staff at the TEP.
Evacuees are urged to take the following protective actions and leave immediately:
– Gather all family members. – Gather all pets. – Gather only essential items. – Be sure to bring essential medications with you. – Turn off all appliances and lights in your home. – Lock your home.
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA – The complex of fires burning since Sunday on the Mendocino National Forest continued to add more acreage on Friday as officials instituted a closure on the forest.
The August Complex had grown to 143,663 acres and 6-percent containment as of Friday night, according to the US Forest Service.
The complex is made up of 32 fires that have burned into 20 larger fires, officials said.
The Forest Service said 353 firefighters and 69 overhead personnel, 29 engines, two helicopters, five bulldozers, seven water tenders and six fire crews are assigned.
Officials said the Tathum and Cold Springs fires – located four miles west of Paskenta – have merged. The Forest Service is working in tandem with Cal Fire, which is constructing dozer lines along County Road 306 to protect the private homes and properties.
Mendocino National Forest officials said they have implemented a temporary area closure for the August Complex effective Friday.
The closure is to provide for firefighter and public safety due to extreme fire behavior and hazards associated with the complex, officials said.
“We understand it is hunting season and people want to go hunting and camping,” Forest Supervisor Ann Carlson said in a Friday statement. “However, this closure is necessary to ensure no one is injured within or near the fires or that visitors enter areas and find their egress compromised by dangerous fire activity. It will also help keep fire personnel safe while working on and near roads in order to contain the fires.”
Although this is a sizable closure and all National Forest System lands, inclusive of roads, trails, and campgrounds within the closure area will be closed until the hazards can be reduced to an acceptable level, officials said much of the forest remains open.
Officials ask visitors to please remember good camping etiquette and pack out everything that you pack in.
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The August Complex closure area. Map courtesy of the Mendocino National Forest.
