A record share of American workers are quitting their jobs, thanks in part to a strong economy and a labor shortage.

Does that mean Americans are unhappy with where they work?

The answer would seem to be yes, according to many economists and other observers. That’s the narrative driving the Great Resignation, in which workers are simply fed up with their current jobs and demanding something better.

Survey data I’ve been collecting during the pandemic, along with social survey results from previous years, however, suggests this is far from the whole story. Rather than being motivated simply by dissatisfaction, it appears many of them are simply taking advantage of a strong economy to look around, while for others, the pandemic has prompted them to consider their options.

Are you satisfied?

The General Social Survey, a reputable national survey of American adults, has been asking workers questions about how they feel about the quality of their working life since 2002.

There are actually three key types of questions it asks that help us get at this idea: the level of dissatisfaction with current work, turnover intention and confidence in finding a new job.

Let’s start with dissatisfaction. The question is: “On the whole, how satisfied are you with the work you do – would you say you are very satisfied, moderately satisfied, a little dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?”

In 2002, about 12% of respondents said they were very dissatisfied or a little dissatisfied with their work, a figure that barely changed in subsequent surveys through 2018. In 2021, a tad over 16% said they weren’t satisfied – an increase, but not a big one. And on the flip side, a little over 83% said they were moderately or very satisfied.

This means that by and large the vast majority of Americans – at least according to this survey – express moderate to high satisfaction with their work.

Looking for a change

Turnover intention is another important indicator. The General Social Survey asks:

“Taking everything into consideration, how likely is it you will make a genuine effort to find a new job with another employer within the next year – would you say very likely, somewhat likely or not at all likely?”

My interpretation of a “very likely” response to this question is that it signals an immediate interest in leaving their present job. In 2002, about 19% said they were very likely to try to find a new job soon. Over the years, the share who said this rose and fell a little, but has remained very consistent.

Unfortunately, the survey hasn’t posed the question since 2018, so I partnered with polling company Angus Reid Global to conduct two large national surveys of American workers in November 2020 and November 2021. One of the questions I asked was the one on turnover intentions, though I extended the period of time in which they expected to look for a new job to two years.

As you might expect given the rising quit rate, the share saying they were very likely to hunt for a new position jumped. It rose to 26% in 2020 and to 29% in November 2021.

While it’s likely that my number is a bit elevated just because of the extended time horizon – two years instead of one – the increase is consistent with the Great Resignation narrative that workers are keen to find a better workplace.

But these two figures – job satisfaction and turnover – reveal an interesting paradox: A greater share of people say they are contemplating quitting than express dissatisfaction with their current job. There are several possibilities for why a worker might be happy with their job, yet eyeing a move to another company. Perhaps they’re seeking more status or reconsidering their career, or maybe they’re worried about possible layoffs.

Confidence in the job search

An additional theme in the Great Resignation narrative is that workers feel more confident about finding alternative job prospects – and that’s one reason they have been quitting in droves.

Fortunately, the General Social Survey asks that very question:

“How easy would it be for you to find a job with another employer with approximately the same income and fringe benefits as you now have – not at all easy, somewhat easy or very easy?”

Two years before the COVID-19 pandemic, in 2018, about a quarter of respondents said finding another job would be very easy. I asked the same question in my 2021 survey and found that number had actually decreased to around 22%.

This means that worker confidence or optimism about finding a palatable alternative job has not climbed all that much, making it less likely to be a factor in driving the current wave of resignations.

What’s going on here?

While the data doesn’t show that Americans overwhelmingly love their jobs or anything like that, they do suggest most people like them enough to hold on to them.

Of course, this isn’t the end of the story. The data does show important differences depending on the type of job we’re talking about. For example, workers in the service sector were more dissatisfied with their jobs and much more likely to express an intent to quit than the average respondent.

But all in all, the survey data doesn’t support the common narrative that it’s a “take this job and shove it” economy, in which increasingly unhappy workers are finally sticking it to their managers.

Rather, when you dig down into the data, something different appears: A slice of workers are always considering leaving their jobs – and as the labor market looks brighter, the pent-up impulse to quit kicks in. But the shift in worker sentiment – or at least the way it has been portrayed – seems exaggerated.

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Scott Schieman, Professor of Sociology, University of Toronto

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

On Dec. 1, 2021, California triggered headlines heard around the world when officials announced how much water suppliers would be getting from the State Water Project. “California water districts to get 0% of requested supplies in an unprecedented decision,” one headline proclaimed. “No state water for California farms,” read another.

The headlines suggested a comparison with the “Zero Day” announcement in Cape Town, South Africa, during a drought in 2018. That was the projected date when water would no longer be available at household taps without significant conservation. Cape Town avoided a water shutoff, barely.

While California’s announcement represents uncharted territory and is meant to promote water conservation in what is already a dry water year, there is more to the story.

California’s drought solution

California is a semi-arid state, so a dry year isn’t a surprise. But a recent state report observed that California is now in a dry pattern “interspersed with an occasional wet year.” The state suffered a three-year drought from 2007 to 2009, a five-year drought from 2012 to 2016, and now two dry years in a row; 2020 was the fifth-driest year on record, and 2021 was the second-driest.

Coming into the 2022 water year – which began Oct. 1 – the ground is dry, reservoirs are low and, even with a multi-day storm forecast to bring rain and snow, predictions suggest another drier than normal year.

Over a century ago, well before climate change became evident, officials began planning ways to keep California’s growing cities and farms supplied with water. They developed a complex system of reservoirs and canals that funnel water from where it’s plentiful to where it’s needed.

Part of that system is the State Water Project.

First envisioned in 1919, the State Water Project delivers water from the relatively wetter and, at the time, less populated areas of Northern California to more populated and drier areas, mostly in Southern California. The State Water Project provides water for 27 million people and 750,000 acres of farmland, with about 70% for residential, municipal and industrial use and 30% for irrigation. There are 29 local water agencies – the state water contractors – that helped fund the State Water Project and in return receive water under a contract dating to the 1960s.

While the State Water Project is important to these local water agencies, it is usually not their only source of water. Nor is all water in California supplied through the State Water Project. Most water agencies have a portfolio of water supplies, which can include pumping groundwater.

What does 0% mean?

Originally, the State Water Project planned to deliver 4.2 million acre-feet of water each year. An acre-foot is about 326,000 gallons, or enough water to cover a football field in water 1 foot deep. An average California household uses around one-half to 1 acre-foot of water per year for both indoor and outdoor use. However, contractors that distribute water from the State Water Project have historically received only part of their allocations; the long-term average is 60%, with recent years much lower.

Based on water conditions each year, the state Department of Water Resources makes an initial allocation by Dec. 1 to help these state water contractors plan. As the year progresses, the state can adjust the allocation based on additional rain or snow and the amount of water in storage reservoirs. In 2010, for example, the allocation started at 5% and was raised to 50% by June. In 2014, the allocation started at 5%, dropped to 0% and then finished at 5%.

This year is the lowest initial allocation on record. According to the state Department of Water Resources, “unprecedented drought conditions” and “reservoirs at or near historic lows” led to this year’s headline-producing 0% allocation.

That’s 0% of each state water contractor’s allocation; however, the department committed to meet “unmet minimum health and safety needs.” In other words, if the contractors cannot find water from other sources, they could request up to 55 gallons per capita per day of water to “meet domestic supply, fire protection and sanitation needs.” That’s about two-thirds of what the average American uses.

The department is also prioritizing water for salinity control in the Sacramento Bay Delta area, water for endangered species, water to reserve in storage and water for additional supply allocations if the weather conditions improve.

Under the current plan, there will be no water from the State Water Project for roughly 10% of California’s irrigated land. As a result, both municipal and agricultural suppliers will be seeking to conserve water, looking elsewhere for water supplies, or not delivering water. None are easy solutions.

The problem with pumping groundwater

To weather previous droughts, many water suppliers relied on groundwater, which led to increased costs for wells, declines in groundwater levels, land subsidence and degraded water quality. California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act was enacted in 2014 to help address overpumping of groundwater, but it hasn’t turned these conditions around.

Those who can afford to dig deeper wells have done so, while others have no water as their wells have gone dry. During the 2012-2016 drought, the Public Policy Institute of California found that a majority of affected households that lost water access from their wells were in “small rural communities reliant on shallow wells – many of them communities of color.”

Gov. Gavin Newsom called on residents to voluntarily conserve 15% of their water during summer 2021. Statewide reductions were only 1.8% in July but jumped to 13.2% in October. This year’s snowpack, which acts as a natural reservoir, is far below normal.

Irrigators who depend on the federal Central Valley Project are facing similar drought conditions. Imports from the Colorado River system are also limited, as this basin is also facing its first-ever shortage declaration due to drought.

What’s next?

As someone who has worked in California and the Western U.S. on complex water issues, I am familiar with both drought and floods and the challenges they create. However, the widespread nature of this year’s drought – in California and beyond – makes the challenge even harder.

This “zero allocation” for California’s State Water Contractors is an unprecedented early warning, and likely a sign of what’s ahead.

A recent study warned that the snowpack in Western states like California may decline by up to 45% by 2050, with low- and no-snow years becoming increasingly common. Thirty-seven cities in California have already issued moratoriums on development because of water supply concerns.

If voluntary conservation does not work, enacting mandatory conservation measures like San Jose’s tough new drought rules may be needed. The state is now weighing emergency regulations on water use, and everyone is hoping for more precipitation.

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Lara B. Fowler, Senior Lecturer in Law and Assistant Director for Outreach and Engagement, Penn State Institutes of Energy and the Environment, Penn State

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.