Just about every indicator of drought is flashing red across the western U.S. after a dry winter and warm early spring. The snowpack is at less than half of normal in much of the region. Reservoirs are being drawn down, river levels are dropping and soils are drying out.

It’s only May, and states are already considering water use restrictions to make the supply last longer. California’s governor declared a drought emergency in 41 of 58 counties. In Utah, irrigation water providers are increasing fines for overuse. Some Idaho ranchers are talking about selling off livestock because rivers and reservoirs they rely on are dangerously low and irrigation demand for farms is only just beginning.

Scientists are also closely watching the impact that the rapid warming and drying is having on trees, worried that water stress could lead to widespread tree deaths. Dead and drying vegetation means more fuel for what is already expected to be another dangerous fire season.

U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack told reporters on May 13, 2021, that federal fire officials had warned them to prepare for an extremely active fire year. “We used to call it fire season, but wildland fires now extend throughout the entire year, burning hotter and growing more catastrophic in drier conditions due to climate change,” Vilsack said.

As climate scientists, we track these changes. Right now, about 84% of the western U.S. is under some level of drought, and there is no sign of relief.

The many faces of drought

Several types of drought are converging in the West this year, and all are at or near record levels.

When too little rain and snow falls, it’s known as meteorological drought. In April, precipitation across large parts of the West was less than 10% of normal, and the lack of rain continued into May.

Rivers, lakes, streams and groundwater can get into what’s known as hydrological drought when their water levels fall. Many states are now warning about low streamflow after a winter with less-than-normal snowfall and warm spring temperatures in early 2021 speeding up melting. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation said Lake Mead, a giant Colorado River reservoir that provides water for millions of people, is on pace to fall to levels in June that could trigger the first federal water shortage declaration, with water use restrictions across the region.

Dwindling soil moisture leads to another problem, known as agricultural drought. The average soil moisture levels in the western U.S. in April were at or near their lowest levels in over 120 years of observations.

These factors can all drive ecosystems beyond their thresholds – into a condition called ecological drought – and the results can be dangerous and costly. Fish hatcheries in Northern California have started trucking their salmon to the Pacific Ocean, rather than releasing them into rivers, because the river water is expected to be at historic low levels and too warm for young salmon to tolerate.

Snow drought

One of the West’s biggest water problems this year is the low snowpack.

The western U.S. is critically dependent on winter snow slowly melting in the mountains and providing a steady supply of water during the dry summer months. But the amount of water in snowpack is on the decline here and across much of the world as global temperatures rise.

Several states are already seeing how that can play out. Federal scientists in Utah warned in early May that more water from the snowpack is sinking into the dry ground where it fell this year, rather than running off to supply streams and rivers. With the state’s snowpack at 52% of normal, streamflows are expected to be well below normal through the summer, with some places at less than 20%.

Anthropogenic drought

It’s important to understand that drought today isn’t only about nature.

More people are moving into the U.S. West, increasing demand for water and irrigated farmland. And global warming – driven by human activities like the burning of fossil fuels – is now fueling more widespread and intense droughts in the region. These two factors act as additional straws pulling water from an already scarce resource.

As demand for water has increased, the West is pumping out more groundwater for irrigation and other needs. Centuries-old groundwater reserves in aquifers can provide resilience against droughts if they are used sustainably. But groundwater reserves recharge slowly, and the West is seeing a decline in those resources, mostly because water use for agriculture outpaces their recharge. Water levels in some wells have dropped at a rate of 6.5 feet (2 meters) per year.

The result is that these regions are less able to manage droughts when nature does bring hot, dry conditions.

Rising global temperatures also play several roles in drought. They influence whether precipitation falls as snow or rain, how quickly snow melts and, importantly, how quickly the land, trees and vegetation dry out.

Extreme heat and droughts can intensify one another. Solar radiation causes water to evaporate, drying the soil and air. With less moisture, the soil and air then heat up, which dries the soil even more. The result is extremely dry trees and grasses that can quickly burn when fires break out, and also thirstier soils that demand more irrigation.

Alarmingly, the trigger for the drying and warming cycle has been changing. In the 1930s, lack of precipitation used to trigger this cycle, but excess heat has initiated the process in recent decades. As global warming increases temperatures, soil moisture evaporates earlier and at larger rates, drying out soils and triggering the warming and drying cycle.

Fire warnings ahead

Hot, dry conditions in the West last year fueled a record-breaking wildfire season that burned over 15,900 square miles (41,270 square kilometers), including the largest fires on record in Colorado and California.

As drought persists, the chance of large, disastrous fires increases. The seasonal outlook of warmer and drier-than-normal conditions for summer and fire season outlooks by federal agencies suggest another tough, long fire year is ahead.

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This article was updated with a statement from Secretaries Deb Haaland and Tom Vilsack.

Mojtaba Sadegh, Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering, Boise State University; Amir AghaKouchak, Associate Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, and John Abatzoglou, Associate Professor of Engineering, University of California, Merced

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The Food and Drug Administration expanded emergency use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine to include adolescents 12 to 15 years of age on May 10, 2021. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention followed with recommendations endorsing use in this age group after their advisory group meeting on May 12. The American Academy of Pediatrics also supports this decision.

Dr. Debbie-Ann Shirley is an associate professor of pediatrics at the University of Virginia specializing in pediatric infectious diseases. Here she addresses some of the concerns parents may have about their teen or preteen getting the COVID-19 vaccine.

1. Does the vaccine work in adolescents?

Yes, recently released data from Pfizer-BioNTech shows that the COVID-19 vaccine seems to work really well in this age group. The COVID-19 vaccine was found to be 100% efficacious in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 in an ongoing clinical trial of children in the U.S. aged 12 to 15. Adolescents made high levels of antibody in response to the vaccine, and their immune response was just as strong as what has been seen in older teens and young adults 16-25 years of age.

2. How do I know whether the vaccine is safe for my child?

So far, the COVID-19 vaccine appears to be safe and well tolerated in adolescents. All of the COVID-19 vaccines authorized for use in the U.S. have undergone rigorous study, but we don’t want to assume that children are little adults. This is why it is so important to study these vaccines just as carefully in children before health authorities could recommend use. Ongoing studies will continue to follow vaccinated children closely and robust safety monitoring will help rapidly identify rare or unexpected concerns if they emerge.

3. I thought children were low-risk – do they still need to get the vaccine?

Currently, children represent nearly one-quarter of all new reported weekly COVID-19 cases in the U.S. While serious illness from COVID-19 is rare in children, it does occur – thousands of children have been hospitalized and at least 351 children have died from COVID-19 in the U.S. Some children who get seriously ill from COVID-19 may have underlying health conditions, but not all do. Vaccination will help protect children from developing serious illness.

Additionally, since adolescents can transmit COVID-19 to others, vaccinating children may prove to be an important part of safely getting back to normal activities of life, including attending school in person, participating in team sports and spending time with friends. A large survey of school-aged children showed that children in full or partial virtual school reported lower levels of physical activity, less in-person time socializing with friends and worse mental or emotional health compared with those receiving full in-person schooling. Children are experiencing unprecedented increases in indirect adverse health and educational consequences related to the pandemic, and we need to find ways to help them get quickly and safely back to normal life. Vaccination is one of them.

4. What side effects might I expect for my child?

Nonsevere side effects may be experienced following vaccination. The most commonly reported side effects have been pain and swelling at the injection site. Other common side effects include tiredness and headache. Similar to young adults, some adolescents have experienced fever, chills, muscle aches and joint pain, which may be more common after the second dose. These effects are short-lived, however, and most resolve within one to two days.

Some adolescents may faint when receiving an injection. If this is a concern for your child, let your vaccine administration site know ahead of time – your child can be given the vaccine while they’re seated or lying down to avoid injuries from falling.

5. Have there been any severe reactions among children?

No serious adverse events related to vaccination were reported in the Pfizer-BioNTech clinical trial. Serious allergic reactions have rarely been reported in older people. Anyone with a known severe or immediate allergy to the vaccine or any component of the vaccine should not get the vaccine. If your child has a history of any severe allergic reactions or any type of immediate allergic reaction to a vaccine or injectable therapy, let the vaccine site administrator know so that your child can be monitored for at least 30 minutes after getting the vaccine.

Parents should talk to a trusted health care provider or allergist if they have specific questions about the possibility of an allergic reaction in their child.

6. When will a COVID-19 vaccine be authorized for children younger than 12 years?

COVID-19 vaccine makers have begun or are planning to begin testing COVID-19 vaccines in younger children. As more information becomes available, the authorized age recommendations may change. Children ages 2-11 years old could potentially be eligible as early as the end of this year.

7. If I’ve been vaccinated but my child hasn’t, could I still give the virus to them?

The COVID-19 vaccines do not contain live COVID-19 virus, so they cannot cause COVID-19. Rather, getting vaccinated will help protect both you and your children from COVID-19. Studies have shown that vaccinated pregnant and lactating mothers can pass protective immunity on to their young infants across the placenta and in breast milk – one more benefit of vaccination.

Though researchers are still learning how well the vaccine can help prevent spread, vaccination is still an important way to limit infecting people who are not yet eligible for the vaccine, like younger children.

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Debbie-Ann Shirley, Associate Professor of Pediatrics, University of Virginia

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.