LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — What started out as an emergency search for a missing Lucerne man had a happy ending on Friday when authorities located him and his damaged vehicle not far from Highway 29 in northern Napa County.
Greg Restani, 74, was found at around 2 p.m. Friday.
Restani, who has dementia, had last been seen at around 3 p.m. Thursday driving his white 1999 two-door Honda Accord on Highway 29 in the area of Butts Canyon Road near Middletown.
His disappearance led to a Friday search by the Napa County Sheriff’s Office along Highway 29.
Family and friends reported early Friday afternoon that a California Highway Patrol plane spotted the Honda on the Old Lawley Toll Road, which splits off Highway 29 near the Calistoga Grade.
Restani’s vehicle was found crashed about a fourth of a mile off the highway.
A search and rescue team found Restani huddled in a barn.
Family members posted a picture of him safe and on the way home on Facebook a short time later.
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
The death of Sen. Dianne Feinstein, announced on Friday, has elicited responses from across government, including Lake County’s representative in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Rep. Mike Thompson (CA-04) honored Feinstein, who died at age 90. She was the longest serving woman in the U.S. Senate.
“Sen. Dianne Feinstein was a legendary and iconic public servant and a champion for California and our nation. She put her heart and soul completely into serving her beloved San Francisco, California, and our nation, and we owe her a debt a gratitude for the incredible work that she has done throughout her career. Dianne broke many glass ceilings, from serving as the first female president of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, the first female mayor of San Francisco, to the first female senator from our state. She was a trailblazer in every meaning of the word,” Thompson said.
“Dianne earned and held the love and trust of both her constituents and her colleagues because of her tremendous work ethic, deep knowledge of issues, and her willingness to work across the aisle to get things done. She would study the issues to make sure she was making the most informed decision possible for her constituents. As chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee and Intelligence Committee, she tirelessly fought for our country, no matter how difficult the challenge or complex the issue.
“Dianne and I worked closely together on projects that have improved the lives of the people of in our state, particularly on the Northern California Coastal Wild Heritage Wilderness Act that protected hundreds of thousands of acres and will ensure these pristine lands and opportunities for outdoor recreation will be enjoyed for generations to come. She was a champion for gun violence prevention issues and was a tireless advocate for keeping our communities safe. Her legacy will never be forgotten.
“Dianne Feinstein was an outstanding public servant, and her voice and advocacy will be sorely missed. Jan and I send our thoughts and prayers to her friends, family, and staff during this sad time,” Thompson said.
Gov. Gavin Newsom is now tasked with naming a successor to temporarily fill Feinstein’s seat until a special election can be held to fill the remainder of her term, which continues until January 2025.
Over the last decade, smartphones have become ubiquitous not just for sending texts and staying abreast of news, but also for monitoring daily activity levels.
Among the most common, and arguably the most meaningful, tracking method for daily physical activity is step counting.
Counting steps is far more than a fad: The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services dedicated a sizable portion of its most recent physical activity guidelines to documenting the relationship between daily step counts and several chronic diseases.
Unfortunately, the guidelines have little to say about how step counts might be used to aid in weight management, an outcome of critical importance given the high rates of overweight and obesity in the U.S.
While the evidence is clear that increasing numbers of adults are living in a chronic energy surplus that leads to weight gain, a key question is – why? What has changed so dramatically since 1980 that could explain why obesity rates have tripled?
Although the American diet is likely a key contributor, a wealth of research points to a reduction in physical activity as a major culprit behind the expanding waist lines – and step counts are an excellent indicator of physical activity.
Step counts may – or may not – lead to weight loss
A number of recent studies have looked at whether increasing step counts can lead to weight loss over a certain period of time. One large-scale study called a meta-analysis concluded that increasing physical activity by way of step counts was effective for attaining modest weight loss. However, many if not most studies examining the effect of exercise on weight loss report modest outcomes, with results that are variable and often disappointing.
That may be in part because the step count targets used in many weight management studies are most often set in an arbitrary manner, such as targeting 10,000 steps per day. Or, if they’re individualized at all, they’re based on initial behavioral characteristics, like adding a given number of steps to what a person is already accumulating in a typical day. Rarely, if ever, are the step targets in research studies based on any physical attributes of the participants.
My team’s research has compiled weight, body fat percentages and average step counts for large numbers of adults between 19 and 40 years of age. From that data, we have identified a way to determine specific step count goals based on key physical attributes – namely, baseline body weight and composition, and the desired body composition.
When it comes to health, it is important to remember that body weight does not tell the whole story. In fact, body composition is much more predictive of health status than body weight. Someone who weighs more than another person may be in better health if they have more muscle mass and a lower percentage of body fat than the other person who weighs less but has a higher proportion of body fat.
Parsing the numbers
We have used our data to develop a model that predicts average daily step counts per unit of fat mass from body fat percentage. We believe that this model can be used to determine how much people would need to walk to achieve a specific amount of weight and body fat reduction.
Take, for instance, a man who weighs 175 pounds (80 kilograms), of which 25% is fat. Our model suggests that he walks an average of 10,900 steps a day. Then consider another man who weighs 220 pounds (100 kilograms), of which 20% is fat. Although they have different amounts of lean mass, both men have about 44 pounds (20 kilograms) of fat. So our model predicts that the heavier man walks an average of 15,300 steps a day. In other words, the heavier person has a lower percentage of body fat and walks more to maintain that leaner body composition.
A person’s body fat percentage is every bit as important as their weight. That’s because how much muscle you have affects how hungry you get, as well as how many calories you burn. Muscle mass requires energy to maintain, and this requirement leads to increased appetite, which means taking in more calories. In this example, the heavier man probably eats more than the lighter man in order to maintain his lean muscle mass, and he must walk more to maintain his lower body fat percentage.
If you want to lose body fat, and therefore weight, you basically have two choices: You can eat less, or you can move more. Eating less means you’ll be hungry a lot, and that’s uncomfortable, unpleasant and, for most people, not sustainable. Moving more, on the other hand, can allow you to eat until you’re full and keep body fat off – or even lose it.
Therefore, we wanted to know how much a person who eats until they’re full might have to move to offset the calories they’re eating.
It’s easy to add in extra steps – for example, park a little farther from the grocery store or take an extra trip to the mailbox.
Step counts for weight loss
Currently, our model applies to young adults, but we are now collecting data for middle-aged and older adults too. To use this model, you need to first have your body composition determined, a service that is being offered by increasing numbers of fitness centers and medical practices. With our model, you must determine your body weight and fat weight in kilograms – to do this, simply divide your weight in pounds by 2.2.
With this information in hand, our model can provide a step count target that is specific to a person’s current body weight and body fat percentage, and their goal for fat loss and weight reduction.
For example, our model predicts that a woman weighing 155 pounds (70 kilograms) with 30% body fat currently accumulates an average of about 8,700 steps per day. If she wants to lose about 10 pounds and reach a body fat percentage around 25%, she could consult the model and discover that people who maintain that body composition accumulate an average of about 545 steps per kilogram of fat per day. Since she currently has about 46 pounds (21 kilograms) of fat, her goal would be to accumulate a total of 11,450 steps per day.
While that may seem at first glance to be a sizable increase in daily steps, most people can accumulate 1,000 steps in 10 minutes or less. So even with a comfortable pace, this additional daily dose of walking would take fewer than 30 minutes. Furthermore, steps can be accumulated throughout the day, with longer or more frequent trips, or both, to restrooms, vending machines and the like.
While steps certainly can be accumulated in dedicated walking sessions, such as a 15-minute walk during lunch hour and another 15-minute walk in the evening, they can also be accumulated in shorter, more frequent bouts of activity.
Researchers have learned a great deal in the past 70 years about appetite and energy expenditure: Appetite imposes a drive for food based largely on our fat-free mass, no matter how active or inactive we are, and we must accumulate enough physical activity to counter the calories that we take in through our diet if we want to maintain an energy balance – or exceed our intake to lose weight.
Since ChatGPT’s release in late 2022, many news outlets have reported on the ethical threats posed by artificial intelligence. Tech pundits have issued warnings of killer robots bent on human extinction, while the World Economic Forum predicted that machines will take away jobs.
There is a better way to bring artificial intelligence into workplaces. I know, because I’ve seen it, as a sociologist who works with NASA’s robotic spacecraft teams.
The scientists and engineers I study are busy exploring the surface of Mars with the help of AI-equipped rovers. But their job is no science fiction fantasy. It’s an example of the power of weaving machine and human intelligence together, in service of a common goal.
Mars rovers act as an important part of NASA’s team, even while operating millions of miles away from their scientist teammates.NASA/JPL-Caltech via AP
Instead of replacing humans, these robots partner with us to extend and complement human qualities. Along the way, they avoid common ethical pitfalls and chart a humane path for working with AI.
The replacement myth in AI
Stories of killer robots and job losses illustrate how a “replacement myth” dominates the way people think about AI. In this view, humans can and will be replaced by automated machines.
Empirical evidence shows that automation does not cut costs. Instead, it increases inequality by cutting out low-status workers and increasing the salary cost for high-status workers who remain. Meanwhile, today’s productivity tools inspire employees to work more for their employers, not less.
Alternatives to straight-out replacement are “mixed autonomy” systems, where people and robots work together. For example, self-driving cars must be programmed to operate in traffic alongside human drivers. Autonomy is “mixed” because both humans and robots operate in the same system, and their actions influence each other.
Self-driving cars, while operating without human intervention, still require training from human engineers and data collected by humans.AP Photo/Tony Avelar
However, mixed autonomy is often seen as a step along the way to replacement. And it can lead to systems where humans merely feed, curate or teach AI tools. This saddles humans with “ghost work” – mindless, piecemeal tasks that programmers hope machine learning will soon render obsolete.
But my research with robotic spacecraft teams at NASA shows that when companies reject the replacement myth and opt for building human-robot teams instead, many of the ethical issues with AI vanish.
Teamwork also means leveraging the combined strengths of both robotic and human senses or intelligences. After all, there are many capabilities that robots have that humans do not – and vice versa.
For instance, human eyes on Mars can only see dimly lit, dusty red terrain stretching to the horizon. So engineers outfit Mars rovers with camera filters to “see” wavelengths of light that humans can’t see in the infrared, returning pictures in brilliant false colors.
Meanwhile, the rovers’ onboard AI cannot generate scientific findings. It is only by combining colorful sensor results with expert discussion that scientists can use these robotic eyes to uncover new truths about Mars.
Respectful data
Another ethical challenge to AI is how data is harvested and used. Generative AI is trained on artists’ and writers’ work without their consent, commercial datasets are rife with bias, and ChatGPT “hallucinates” answers to questions.
Robots on Mars also rely on data, processing power and machine learning techniques to do their jobs. But the data they need is visual and distance information to generate driveable pathways or suggest cool new images.
Unlike anthropomorphism – projecting human characteristics onto a machine – this feeling is born from a sense of care for the machine. It is developed through daily interactions, mutual accomplishments and shared responsibility.
When machines inspire a sense of care, they can underline – not undermine – the qualities that make people human.
A better AI is possible
In industries where AI could be used to replace workers, technology experts might consider how clever human-machine partnerships could enhance human capabilities instead of detracting from them.
Script-writing teams may appreciate an artificial agent that can look up dialog or cross-reference on the fly. Artists could write or curate their own algorithms to fuel creativity and retain credit for their work. Bots to support software teams might improve meeting communication and find errors that emerge from compiling code.
Of course, rejecting replacement does not eliminate all ethical concerns with AI. But many problems associated with human livelihood, agency and bias shift when replacement is no longer the goal.
The replacement fantasy is just one of many possible futures for AI and society. After all, no one would watch “Star Wars” if the ‘droids replaced all the protagonists. For a more ethical vision of humans’ future with AI, you can look to the human-machine teams that are already alive and well, in space and on Earth.
Firefighters wrap up work at the scene of a structure fire in Nice, California, on Thursday, Sept. 28, 2023. Photo by Elizabeth Larson/Lake County News. NICE, Calif. — A home in Nice sustained serious damage in a Thursday evening fire.
Northshore Fire reported that the fire was first dispatched at 6:43 p.m.
Firefighters responded to the stick built home, in the 6700 block of Keeling Avenue, on the report of a room on fire.
Two people were at home at the time the fire broke out. There were no injuries.
Within 15 minutes firefighters had knocked down the blaze, which they kept from spreading to vegetation or other nearby homes and structures.
Although the fire was contained to the room of origin, there was extensive smoke damage. Officials estimated that 50% of the home sustained damage.
Resources responding to the scene from Northshore Fire and Cal Fire included a total of five engines, one water tender, one medic unit, the Northshore Support Team, and two overhead of command staff.
The cause of the fire was not reported.
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
Radios crackle with chatter from a wildfire incident command post. Up the fireline, firefighters in yellow jerseys are swinging Pulaskis, axlike hand tools, to carve a fuel break into the land.
By 10 a.m., these firefighters have already hiked 3 miles up steep, uneven terrain and built nearly 1,200 feet of fireline.
It’s physically exhausting work and essential for protecting communities as wildfire risks rise in a warming world. Hotshot crews like this one, the U.S. Forest Service’s Lolo Hotshots, are the elite workforce of the forests. When they’re on the fireline, their bodies’ total daily energy demands can rival that of the cyclists in the Tour de France, as my team’s research with wildland fire crews shows.
Ruby Mountain Hotshots construct a fireline during the Dixie Fire in 2021.Joe Bradshaw/BLM
These firefighters are also caught in Congress’ latest budget battle, where demands by far-right House members to slash federal spending could lead to a governmentwide shutdown after the fiscal year ends on Sept. 30, 2023.
After extreme fire seasons in 2020 and 2021, Congress funded a temporary bonus that boosted average U.S. Forest Service wildland firefighter pay by either 50% or US$20,000, whichever was lower. But that increase expires after Sept. 30, knocking many federal firefighters back to earning the minimum $15 per hour.
Life on the fireline is demanding. Pack straps dig into the neck and shoulders with each swing of the Pulaski. It’s a constant reminder that everything wildland firefighters need, they carry – all day.
The critical water and food items, supplies, extra gear and fireline tools – Pulaskis, chain saws and fuel – add up to an average gear weight often exceeding 50 pounds.
Hiking with a load and digging firelines with hand tools burns about 6 to 14 calories per minute. Heart rates rise in response to an increased pace of digging.
A Lakeview Hotshots firefighter carries equipment and fuel for containing the Cedar Creek fire near Oakridge, Ore., in 2022.Dan Morrison / AFP via Getty Images
This isn’t just for a few days. Fire season in the western United States can last five months or more, with most Hotshot crews accumulating four to five times the number of operational days of the 22-day Tour de France and over 1,000 hours of overtime.
The physical demand of a day on the fireline
My team has been measuring the physical strain and total energy demands of work on an active wildfire, with the goal of finding ways to improve firefighter fueling strategies and health and safety on the line.
The crew members we work with are outfitted with a series of lightweight monitors that measure heart rate, as well as movement patterns and speed, using GPS. Each participant swallows a temperature-tracking sensor before breakfast that will record core body temperature each minute throughout the work shift.
Firefighters are often working in rough forest terrain involving long hikes and steep slopes. Here, the Ruby Mountain Hotshot crew gets a briefing on the Dixie Fire in California in 2021.Joe Bradshaw/BLM
As the work shift progresses, the Hotshots constantly monitor their surroundings and self-regulate their nutrient and fluid intake, knowing their shift could last 12 to 16 hours.
During intense activity in high heat, their fluid intake can increase to 32 ounces per hour or more.
My team’s research has found that the most effective way for wildland firefighters to stay fueled is to eat small meals frequently throughout the work shift, similar to the patterns perfected by riders in the Tour. This preserves cognitive health, helping firefighters stay focused and sharp for making potentially lifesaving decisions and keenly aware of their ever-dynamic surroundings, and boosts their work performance. It also helps slow the depletion of important muscle fuel.
Resource demands on a wildland firefighter.Christopher Durdle, Brent Ruby, CC BY-ND
Although crews gradually acclimatize to the heat over the season, the risk for heat exhaustion is ever present if the work rate is not kept in check. This cannot be prevented by simply drinking more water during long work shifts. However, regular breaks and having a strong aerobic capacity provides some protection by reducing heat stress and overall risk.
The season takes a toll
Hotshots are physically fit, and they train for the fire season just as many athletes train for their competition season. Most crew members are hired temporarily during the fire season – typically from May to October, but that’s expanding as the planet warms. And there are distinct fitness requirements for the job. The physical preparations are demanding, take months and are expected, even when temporary crew members are not officially employed by the agencies.
‘Home’ on the firelines is typically groups of tents and air mattresses.AP Photo/Ted S. Warren
Progressive intervention strategies can help, such as educational programs on specific physical training and nutritional needs, mindfulness training to reduce the risk of job-oriented anxiety and depression, and emotional support for crew members and families. However, these require agency and congressional investment, a commitment beyond ensuring pay raises remain intact. Removing either is synonymous with taking away critical tools for the job on the firelines.
Developing offseason practices that pay close attention to both physical and mental health recovery can help limit harm to firefighters’ health. Many Hotshots have bounced back and returned season after season. However, a government shutdown and failure to act on pay with no thought to the health and safety of front-line fire crews could worsen crew retention in an already dwindling workforce.
This is an update to an article originally published Aug. 8, 2023.
“Goose.” Photo courtesy of Clearlake Animal Control. CLEARLAKE, Calif. — More new adoptable dogs have made their way to Clearlake Animal Control this week.
The Clearlake Animal Control website lists 38 adoptable dogs.
This week’s new dogs include “Goose,” a male Chihuahua mix with a short brown and brindle coat.
“Bung Bung.” Photo courtesy of Clearlake Animal Control. There also is “Winston,” a 1-year-old male American pit bull terrier mix with a short white and tan coat.
The shelter is located at 6820 Old Highway 53. It’s open from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. Tuesday through Saturday.
For more information, call the shelter at 707-762-6227, email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., visit Clearlake Animal Control on Facebook or on the city’s website.
This week’s adoptable dogs are featured below.
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
From left, Lake County Fire Protection District Chief Willie Sapeta and Challenge Medal recipient Robert Lombardi at the Lake County Fire Protection District Board meeting on Wednesday, Sept. 27, 2023, in Clearlake, California. Photo by Elizabeth Larson/Lake County News. CLEARLAKE, Calif. — A Clearlake resident whose quick and heroic actions are credited with saving a mother and child from an early morning house fire in August has become the first recipient of a new honor from Lake County’s fire chiefs.
On Wednesday afternoon, during the Lake County Fire Protection District’s regular board meeting, Chief Willie Sapeta presented the new Fire Chiefs Challenge Medal to Robert Lombardi.
Sapeta said he was excited to be able to present the medal to Lombardi, a 33-year resident of the city who works as an assistant manager at Foods, Etc.
Lombardi was on his porch in the 3200 block of 13th Street at around 1 a.m. Aug. 29 when he said he heard an explosion at a nearby home.
He ran to that neighboring home, which was burning, and heard screaming from inside of it.
Lombardi went into the home’s backyard, where active fire was venting through the back door.
It was then that he saw a woman and her young daughter, still in the house.
Lombardi helped bring them out of the house, and then took them to his own home, where he cared for the injured pair until firefighters and emergency personnel arrived.
Sapeta told Lake County News that the fire involved two homes, with downed power lines and strong winds hitting the area.
“It was kind of the perfect storm,” he said.
Lake County Fire was joined in fighting the fire by a full wildland dispatch of Cal Fire engines.
Both the mother and her 9-year-old daughter were flown out of the county for treatment of their injuries. Another individual also was injured and transported to the hospital.
Sapeta said that it was a year ago that the fire chiefs began developing the challenge medal.
The colorful medal is larger than most, which Sapeta said was necessary in order for it to clearly show the details of the patches of all five Lake County fire districts: Kelseyville Fire, Lake County Fire, Lakeport Fire, Northshore Fire and South Lake County Fire.
Lake County Fire Protection District Board Vice Chair Diane Watson reads a proclamation honoring the heroism of Challenge Medal recipient Robert Lombardi at the Lake County Fire Protection District Board meeting on Wednesday, Sept. 27, 2023, in Clearlake, California. Photo by Elizabeth Larson/Lake County News.
He said each fire district has 20 of the medals to give to individuals in special recognition.
The rule is that potential recipients have to be vetted, with the chiefs needing to agree on them, Sapeta said.
Sapeta said he sent out an email to his fellow chiefs recommending Lombardi for the award.
Within 10 minutes, Sapeta said all of the chiefs had responded with unanimous support.
Before Sapeta presented the medal to Lombardi at Wednesday’s meeting, Fire District Board Vice Chair Diane Watson read a proclamation detailing Lombardi’s courageous actions as board members Mary Benson, Michael Dean, Richard Moore, Craig Scovel and Jacqueline Snyder looked on. Chair Denise Loustalot was absent.
Watson, who served as a volunteer EMT with the district for more than 13 years, put a hand on Lombardi’s shoulder as she read the proclamation’s account of the early morning fire.
The proclamation ended by honoring Lombardi’s bravery and heroism “with sincere appreciation.”
After receiving the proclamation and the medal, Lombardi offered his thanks to the district, and recognized the heroism of the firefighters in their work to keep the community safe.
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
The two sides of the new Lake County Fire Chiefs Challenge Medal. Photo by Elizabeth Larson/Lake County News.
LAKE COUNTY, Calif. — The National Weather Service said rain is expected to arrive this weekend in Lake County thanks to a storm system moving over the region.
The Lake County forecast said there are chances of rain during the day on Friday and on Friday night.
Friday also is expected to be windy, with wind speeds of close to 15 miles per hour and wind gusts of more than 20 miles per hour.
Chances of rain and thunderstorms increase on Saturday morning.
Throughout the day on Saturday, the Pear Festival will be taking place in downtown Kelseyville.
Chances of rain are highest after 11 a.m. Saturday. Conditions are forecast to be partly sunny, with a high near 62 degrees, and a north wind of between 7 and 10 miles per hour.
Temperatures this week will top out in the high 70s, with nighttime lows in the low 50s, the National Weather Service said.
The forecast calls for dry weather to return early next week, with near-normal — and possibly warmer — temperatures expected.
Email Elizabeth Larson at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Follow her on Twitter, @ERLarson, or Lake County News, @LakeCoNews.
The U.S. is moving toward a government shutdown. House and Senate appropriators are divided on spending levels, policy riders and additional items, such as support for Ukraine.
As a political scientist who studies the evolving budget process, as well as brinksmanship in Congress, it is clear to me that this episode prompts many important questions for how the U.S. is governed.
There’s the larger, long-term question: What are the costs of congressional dysfunction?
But the more immediate concern for people of the country is how a shutdown will affect them. Whether delayed business loans, slower mortgage applications, curtailed food assistance or postponed food inspections, the effects could be substantial.
Air traffic controller training will be halted in a government shutdown.Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Affected: Farm loans to Head Start grants
The total federal budget is almost US$6 trillion. A little over one-fourth is discretionary spending that is funded by the annual appropriations process and thus debated in Congress. This portion of spending provides money for virtually every federal agency, roughly half of which goes to defense. The rest of yearly federal spending is on mandatory entitlement programs, mainly Social Security and Medicare, as well as interest on the national debt.
The Office of Management and Budget, which oversees both development of federal budget plans by federal agencies and their performance, regularly requires agencies to develop shutdown plans. Because agencies continually update these plans, no two shutdowns are exactly alike. Details depend on the agency, program and duration of the shutdown, as well as laws passed with funding since the previous shutdown, and the administration’s priorities. These plans identify a variety of ways the shutdown will affect Americans.
If a shutdown happens this year, new loan approvals from the Small Business Administration will stop. The Federal Housing Administration will experience delays in processing home mortgage loans and approvals. The Department of Agriculture will not offer new farm loans. Head Start grants will not be awarded, initially affecting 10,000 young children from low-income families who are in the program.
Some food inspections by the Food and Drug Administration, workplace safety inspections by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, and environmental safety inspections by the Environmental Protection Agency could be delayed, as they have been when the government stopped functioning in the past.
During the last shutdown, about 60,000 immigration hearings, organized by the Department of Justice and not the courts, were canceled and had to be rescheduled. This year would also see cases involving noncitizens who are not being held by the government reset for a later date, even as other immigration services proceed.
Infrastructure projects awaiting approval from the Environmental Protection Agency could be stalled. The National Institute of Health’s clinical trials for diseases could also be slowed.
This is not a comprehensive list. Agency plans show what happens when federal workers are furloughed – that is, those who cannot report to work in a shutdown. Furloughs will apply to over 700,000 out of roughly 3.5 million federal employees, but even more workers will be “excepted” and required to work without pay until the shutdown ends.
That of course means employee hardship. But like past shutdowns, unpaid workers can fail to report to work in larger numbers. Americans relying on those services will face delays. There may be air travel delays as well, as air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration agents go without pay.
Not affected: The IRS, postal service and entitlement programs
Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid benefits are entitlement programs that are not included in the annual appropriations process. Americans relying on these programs will not see those benefits affected. But these programs require administration. Federal employees would not be available to verify benefits or send out new cards.
There are additional funding sources for government activities, beyond entitlement programs, that aren’t included in the annual appropriations bills and thus are unlikely to be affected by a shutdown.
The U.S. Postal Service, independently funded through its own services, will be unaffected by a shutdown. The federal judiciary could operate for a limited time, funded by court filings, fees and appropriations allocated off the yearly cycle. But this funding won’t last long – 10 days was an estimate for the 2013 shutdown. The Supreme Court, which has functioned in previous shutdowns, is expected to continue its typical schedule.
National parks will be closed in a shutdown, as the Lincoln Memorial in Washington was in the 2013 shutdown.AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster
Sometimes, agencies have funding that exceeds the typical annual appropriations cycle. Or, earlier laws may have been passed that fund activities of an agency in whole or in part. The Inflation Reduction Act provided funds to run the IRS through 2031. Previous shutdowns saw significant IRS furloughs and employees walking off the job. This year, the IRS promises to be fully operational despite a shutdown.
A variety of advance appropriations also exist that provide funding for various programs one year or more beyond the year the appropriations bill was passed, including Veterans Affairs medical care; most VA benefits are unaffected.
The primary law governing funding gaps also makes exceptions for “emergencies involving the safety of human life or the protection of property,” which includes a variety of military activities.
The big question mark
The major unknown is, of course, how long a shutdown might last. Food assistance programs – including the federal food program for poorer women, infants and children, called WIC, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP – which have some contingency funds that carry over into the next fiscal year but are running low, run the risk of those accounts running out.
The federal judiciary has limited funds. There are also a variety of federal grants to states and localities that could be short on funds, such as disaster relief and economic development programs, in addition to nutrition assistance. Government officials at the federal, state and local levels will have to make choices about whether a federal shortfall should be covered by state funds, or if workers should be furloughed. Some of these funds have been protected by increased funding in recent laws: The Highway Trust Fund is solvent through 2027, due to the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law of 2021.
The economy as a whole will suffer more the longer a shutdown continues. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the last shutdown, in 2018-2019, reduced gross domestic product growth by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2019. While that 35-day partial shutdown was the longest in U.S. history, it did not affect all agencies.
Federal employees and contractors are disproportionately hurt. Federal employees who are furloughed or excepted and do not receive pay during the shutdown will receive it retroactively, according to a 2019 law passed as a response to the last shutdown.
No such policy exists for contractors working for the federal government, including services ranging from janitorial to manufacturing. Beyond affecting individual workers, the private sector loses business and adjusts its hiring decisions and other practices.